If you do not use original inks and exactly the right paper (e.g. photo paper from a different brand), you may get a very different result. The paper might look and feel the same, but might behave quite differently when printed on (e.g. it might absorb more ink). If you do not have the correct paper/inks you may still try and choose the closest settings, but if you are not satisfied with the result the only way to get a proper result is to calibrate your printer by creating your own profiles for the setup you are using and print using method 1.
Note that paper and screen are two very different media type that use fundamentally different ways of displaying a picture. They will never look exactly the same, so don't hold the print up next to the monitor. ;)
Comments and suggestions are welcome at firstname.lastname@example.org
Canon ICC Profile Guide
Black Point Compensation, thumbs up or down?
Black Point Compensation, a more detailed/techincal look